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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.
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Lane Kiffin will face Ole Miss, his former team, for the first time since he was named LSU head coach last November. For Kiffin’s return to Oxford, the Tigers are 59% favourites at Kalshi.
The announcement came on the same week that Indian Gaming Association leaders met with CFTC Chair Michael Selig. The meetings centred on prediction market-related discussions that IGA Chair David Bean deemed mostly unproductive. On Wednesday, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reversed a lower court’s decision in Blue Lake Rancheria vs Kalshi.
Per the ruling, the Ninth Circuit determined that Kalshi’s sports event contracts amount to unauthorised gaming under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) when accessed on tribal land.
