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Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.
For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.
A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.
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Tests carried out using a VPN to access banned markets found Evolution’s games had been available to players in the prohibited jurisdictions of UAE, Singapore, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia.
However, further tests found that while using a VPN, Spectrum could not access Evolution’s games in the sanctioned markets of Iran, Sudan and Syria, despite claims to the contrary made by Black Cube in its prior report.
“When we attempted to play games in those locales using VPNs, we were repeatedly denied access,” Spectrum states. It therefore said it found the allegations linked to these countries were “unsupportable and lacking credibility and proper foundation”.
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The research also identified content that associates betting with investments and the possibility of income.
In one of his Instagram stories, speaking directly to the camera, Pedro (a fictitious name for a “professional gambler”) shares a “unique opportunity”. He says that he is going to release a “super promotion for a premium group, which has higher odds”.
The normal price for access to the Telegram group would be BRL397 ($77.18) per month. But, exclusively on that day, he would release both groups together for “only BRL14.91 per month on the annual plan”. This group is the main product sold by Pedro, where he publishes sports predictions, tips on betting operators and higher-value betting odds.